Miami’s Housing Market Is on Fire, But Southwest Florida Is Cooling—What’s Next?

The real estate landscape in Southwest Florida and the Miami metropolitan area has undergone significant changes over the past year. Analyzing key metrics such as median home prices, days on market, and inventory levels provides valuable insights into current trends and future projections for these regions.

Southwest Florida Real Estate Overview

Fort Myers

As of January 2025, the median listing home price in Fort Myers stands at $379,900, reflecting a 10.4% decrease compared to the previous year. Homes here typically sell after 75 days on the market, indicating a shift towards a buyer's market where supply exceeds demand.

Cape Coral

In neighboring Cape Coral, the median listing price is $449,700, marking a 5.3% year-over-year decline. Properties average 78 days on the market, also suggesting favorable conditions for buyers.

Lee County

Broadening the scope to Lee County, which encompasses both Fort Myers and Cape Coral, the median listing price is $435,000, down 7.4% from January 2024. Homes here remain on the market for approximately 74 days before sale.

The downward trend in home prices across Southwest Florida can be attributed to increased housing supply, rising insurance premiums, and rapid construction. Notably, the region has faced challenges such as hurricanes, which have delayed transactions and reduced buyer confidence.

Miami Metropolitan Area Real Estate Overview

Miami (City)

In contrast, Miami's real estate market exhibits resilience. The median sale price in January 2025 is $628,000, representing a 2.4% increase from the previous year. Homes typically sell after 100 days on the market, indicating a balanced market.

Miami-Dade County

Expanding to Miami-Dade County, the median sale price is $560,000, up 4.5% year-over-year. Properties here average 89 days on the market before sale.

South Miami

A standout area is South Miami, where the median sale price has surged to $1.2 million, a significant 38.2% increase from the previous year. Homes in this locale typically sell after 78 days on the market.

Homestead

In Homestead, located in the southern part of Miami-Dade County, the median sale price in January 2025 is $390,000, reflecting a 7.1% increase from the previous year. Homes here generally sell after 88 days on the market, indicating a somewhat competitive market.

The upward trajectory in Miami's housing market, especially in luxury segments, is driven by high-profile investments and a limited inventory of affordable homes. Between 2019 and 2024, the number of single-family home sales under $500,000 in Miami-Dade County dropped nearly 80%, while sales of homes priced above $1 million surged by 147%.

Market Forecast

For Southwest Florida, the combination of increased housing supply and external factors like rising insurance costs may continue to apply downward pressure on home prices in the near term. Potential buyers might find advantageous opportunities as the market favors purchasers.

In the Miami metropolitan area, sustained demand, particularly in luxury real estate, suggests that home prices will remain stable or experience modest growth. However, the diminishing availability of affordable housing could pose challenges for first-time buyers and those seeking entry-level properties.

Conclusion

In summary, while Southwest Florida presents a more buyer-friendly environment with declining prices, Miami's market remains robust, especially in higher-end real estate. Stakeholders should consider these regional dynamics when making informed real estate decisions.